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2024 has started off rather strange for the Boston Red Sox. Boston came into the season with relatively small expectations after finishing in the cellar of the A.L East and after losing Lucas Giolito for the entirety of 2024 due to a partially torn UCL prior to opening day. Yet, as of June 18th they currently sit in 3rd in the A.L East behind the two Juggernauts of the American League, being the Orioles and the Yankees, and are only 2.5 games out of the wild card. Due to Boston’s current position in the American League playoff race many are wondering about whether they will be able to push for that last wild card spot or if they will fall short yet again since dismantling the 2018 championship team. Let’s take a look under the hood and see where Bostons strengths and shortcomings are and whether they can truly contend this season.
The Pitching:
Boston’s pitching staff has defied all expectations they had coming into this season. Fangraphs currently has the Red Sox as one of the best pitching staffs in MLB and with a team ERA of 3.49 it’s hard to argue. Beyond the basic measure of ERA, Boston’s staff is currently sporting a FIP of 3.61, a SIERA of 3.57 and ranks among the highest K/9 and lowest BB/9 in the majors. A lot of these stats come off the back of a bullpen that ranks among the league’s best as they currently sit with a 3.48 ERA and the 4th lowest SIERA in MLB at 3.42. However, Boston’s rotation hasn’t been slouching either as they currently have a 3.49 ERA and have the 5th lowest WHIP in the majors.
The Hitting:
Boston’s bats haven’t quite lived up to the exemplary example set by the pitching staff but they haven’t been bad by any means. Boston currently sports a 105 WRC+ which is good enough for 13th in MLB, certainly room to improve but nothing that will keep them out of contention. Overall they have been rather middle of the pack in most offensive stats and will most likely look for some sort of offensive help at the deadline should the front office decide to buy.
What’s going wrong?
Boston, despite being incredibly strong in some categories, has a very clear weakness that is keeping them out of competing for the American League east and that is some absolutely abysmal fielding. The Red Sox currently have a FRV (Fielding Run Value) of -8 placing them which places them on par with the Mets who have flat out stated they are not looking to compete in 2024. Looking at even the most basic stats paints a horrible picture of Boston as they currently have the worst fielding percentage in the league at .980 and lead all of MLB in errors with 53 with the next closest team being the Miami Marlins with 49 which is not good company to keep when trying to make the playoffs.Â
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The fielding is not the only problem the Red Sox have faced even if it is the largest. Boston’s struggle with beating good teams this year has been noteworthy to say the least. Boston is currently 13-23 against winning teams and they have a run differential of only +43 on the year and while that isn’t bad, it certainly is lackluster for a team trying to contend.
The Verdict:
The Boston Red Sox could absolutely make the playoffs in 2024 off the back of the pitching staff and a serviceable hitting core. However, It wouldn’t come as a shock should they be swept in the wild card due to the fact that they haven’t been able to come out on top against other contending teams and the defense simply is not made for the biggest stage in baseball. While Boston certainly has plenty of issues, it’s not like this is the team they will be rolling into October with. The trade deadline is fast approaching and should the red sox want to go on a run similar to what arizona had last year they will absolutely have to be aggressive at this deadline and get some sort of defensive help as well as acquiring a few quality bats to get that lineup over the top and into the playoffs.
All stats are up to date as of 1:00 PM June 18th.
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